UndervaluedEquity.com
Page: My Stock Market Analysis - Why I Believe the Best Investment Options Can Be Found in the Energy and Mining Sectors

My Due Diligence
   Understanding the Stock Market
   Dow to Gold Ratio
   S&P 500 PE Ratio
   January Effect
   My Stock Market Analysis
   How to Invest in Shares
   Analysts's Stock Ratings
   Country Risk Assessment
   Management Assessment
   Key Management Positions
   Management Compensation
   Management Evaluation
   Insider Stock Trading
   Insider Stock Ownership
   Company Ownership Search
   Insider Trading Rules
   Insider Trading Canada
   Insider Trading USA
   Personal Stock Holdings
   Monitor Your Portfolio
   Share Structure
   Employee Stock Options
   Flow-Through Shares
   Short Stock Positions
   Stock Warrants
   Oil and Gas Companies Analysis
   Oil and Gas Exploration Companies
   Investing in Oil and Gas Companies
   Oil and Gas Flow Rates
   Fracking Definition
   Resources and Reserves Definitions
   Mining Companies Analysis
   Mining Industry Standards
   CIM Definition Standards
   Mineral Resource Stocks
   Gold Mining Shares
   Mineral Exploration Companies
   Drilling Rigs
   Drilling Program
   Drilling Results
   Metal Equivalent Calculation
   Metal Recovery Rate
   Mining Costs
   Break Even Analysis
   Metal Value per Tonne
   Mineral Deposit Value
   Mine Life Cycle
   How Do I Invest in Stocks
   How Do I Buy Stocks
   Insider Ownership Analysis
   Country Risk Ranking System
   Stock Investment Analysis
   Institutional Ownership Assessment
   Management Compensation Analysis
   Management Compensation Comparison
   Management Compensation Evaluation
   Shorting a Stock
   Stock Options and Warrants
Support Me
Free Charts
   Base Metals Price Charts
   Energy Price Charts
   Fertilizer Price Charts
   Precious Metals Price Charts
   Stock Market Indices
ETF Finder
   Base Metals ETFs
   Copper ETFs
   Lead ETFs
   Nickel ETFs
   Tin ETFs
   Energy ETFs
   Coal ETFs
   Crude Oil ETFs
   Natural Gas ETFs
   Uranium ETFs
   Fertilizer ETFs
   Potash ETFs
   Minor Metals ETFs
   Rare Earth Metals ETFs
   Precious Metals ETFs
   Gold ETFs
   Palladium ETFs
   Platinum ETFs
   Silver ETFs

My Stock Market Analysis - Why I Believe the Best Investment Options Can Be Found in the Energy and Mining Sectors

My opinion has been formed by interpreting a great deal of data over the last few years. In order to exemplify some of my insights, I present a summarized version of my stock market analysis in this article. If you would like to know which conclusions I have drawn while executing this stock market analysis, I refer you to the notes at the bottom of this article.

Global Demographic Trends

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it is projected that the world's population will continue to increase, reaching 9.1 billion by 2050, with virtually all population growth occurring in less developed countries.

The report also revealed that by 2050, it is projected that there will be 89 countries which have a median age above 40 years, 45 of these countries will be in the developing world.

The world's urban population is expected to grow by 1.8 percent a year between 2000 and 2030, almost twice as fast as global population growth.

If you would like to read the IMF's complete article about global demographic trends you can click here.

World Urbanization Prospects

According to the United Nations (UN) the world is projected to continue to urbanize, 60 percent of the global population is expected to live in cities by 2030.

If you would like to read the UN's complete article about world urbanization prospects you can do so by clicking here.

images/The-urban-and-rural-population-of-the-world-1950-2030_750px_85pct.jpg

How Scarce Are the Earth's Mineral Resources Really

Given that the earth's mineral resources are becoming more and more scarce as time passes by, as they are finite by definition, I found a very interesting report created by independent researcher Chris Clugston, titled: Increasing Global Non Renewable Natural Resource (NNR) Scarcity.

In his report Chris Clugston concluded: "50 of the 57 analyzed NNRs (88%) experienced global scarcity during the 2000-2008 period; 23 of the 26 analyzed NNRs (88%) will likely experience permanent global supply shortfalls by the year 2030. At the end of the day, we are not about to “run out” of any NNR; we are about to run critically short of many."

If you can spare the time, I recommend that you read the entire report by clicking on the title link provided. However, there is one table from that report which I would like to specifically emphasize - that's why I present it here as well:

Permanent Global Non-Renewable Natural Resource (NNR) Supply Shortfall by 2030 Probability Summary

 Nearly Certain Probability (5)  Very High Probability (8)  High Probability (10)  Low Probability (3)
 Cadmium  Cobalt  Chromium  Bauxite
 Gold  Lead  Coal  REM
 Mercury  Molybdenum  Copper  Tin
 Tellurium  PGM  Indium  
 Tungsten  Phosphate Rock  Iron Ore  
   Silver  Lithium  
   Titanium  Magnesium Compounds  
   Zinc  Natural Gas  
     Nickel  
     Oil  

images/Central-Bank-Balance-Sheets_600px_85pct.jpgThe Central Banking Revolution

The following graph is taken from a special report from Reuters titled: The Central Banking Revolution.

As you can clearly see the central bank balance sheets increased tremendously since 2008, as money was created out of thin air, or as the authors mentioned it in their special report: "That financial meltdown1 caused a credit crunch that triggered a severe recession and, in countries such as Greece, a sovereign debt crisis. After slashing interest rates practically to zero, central banks desperate to prevent a new global depression had no choice but to expand the volume of credit, rather than its price, by reaching for the money-printing solution known as Quantitative Easing(QE). In order to read the complete report from Reuters you can click on the title link provided.

If you take a look at the graph you see data from the period 2006 till 2010. As we all (should) know: the central banks didn't stop with printing money in 2010 - in fact they printed a whole lot more since then.

 

If you would like to be the first to be informed when I add new content to UndervaluedEquity.com, please leave your details in the name grab form on the Support page!

You can also support me directly by clicking on the advertisements that appeal to you, or by making a voluntarily donation with Paypal.

Your support helps me to speed up the process of adding great, free content to UndervaluedEquity.com!

 

Note: By interpreting the global demographic trends and the world urbanization prospects I conclude that the long term demand for the earth's mineral resources will remain strong. As the mineral resources are becoming more scarce as time passes by, caused by temporary or definitive factors, I predict to see a very volatile price environment related to one or more of the earth's resources. In general, I do expect the current prices of the most scarce mineral resources from Chris Clugston's table, to increase in the long term.

Note: Regarding the scarcity of the mineral resources, I recommend that you monitor the price development of the earth's mineral resources mentioned in Chris Clugston's table in the Near Certain Probability and Very High Probability columns very closely, as (temporarily) low prices of a specific mineral resource could indicate that it's a good moment to invest in a mineral resource company involved in that specific low priced resource.

Note: To be able to react fast to a declining price of a specific mineral resource, I also recommend that you create a watchlist of companies involved in a specific mineral resource, so that you can easily find possible candidates to add to your stock portfolio, when this specific resource finds itself in a low price environment.

Note: The consequence of printing money will eventually lead to the awareness that paper assets cannot be a real store of value as they are not finite by definition. Sooner or later the actions of the central banks and or politicians will lead to a noticeable form of inflation. Therefore investors will shift more and more of their holdings to tangible assets instead of paper assets. At the end of the day you do not want to store your wealth in an asset of which the value can be manipulated by central banks and or politicians. This will lead to an extra demand for the earth's resources. I predict that this extra demand will also help the current prices of the most scarce mineral resources to increase in the long term.

Note: It is widely accepted that the financial crisis, which started in 2008, was caused by too much debt in the world. Since then, the only solution governments and central banks offered us, was to print more and more money, i.e. the world's debt rose even further. Therefore, I believe that the big drop in precious metals prices during 2013 gives us an enormous buying opportunity to invest in these metals at unbelievable low prices. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball with which I can predict when these prices will rise substantially, but I firmly believe they will eventually do. If you choose to invest in the precious metal market by acquiring mineral resource stocks, I advise you to only invest in producing resource companies which have a big resource, a low debt level and which are cash flow positive around the current metal prices (June 2014: approximately $1,250 gold/oz & $20/oz silver). In addition, you could invest in mineral exploration companies which already have found a big resource with brownfield exploration potential, located in a safe jurisdiction. These mineral exploration companies should also have a lot of cash on the bank, to be able to survive for at least three to five years.

 

What Type of Content Can You Expect to Find on UndervaluedEquity.com

Main Section  Description 
News (RSS)  Today's News Related to the Global Energy and Mining Stocks. On this page a RSS feed is displayed with stock market news related to the energy and mining sectors. You can subscribe to this free RSS feed too!
My Due Diligence  How I Conduct My Stock's Due Diligence Investigation Process. If you want to know what I learned while I was conducting my due diligence, I recommend you to read all the chapters of the investigation process.
My Stock Watchlist  Are These the Best Stocks to Buy Today. In my stock watchlist you find stocks who offer great potential, but at the time I analysed these stocks they didn't comply with all my guidelines from my due diligence chapters. 
My Stock Portfolio 

Are These the Best Shares to Buy Now. As the year 2015 has just started, I believe it's about time that I share my stock portfolio with you. Therefore, you will find my updated stock portfolio on this page.

 

 

comments powered by Disqus

 

1Refers to March 2008, the collapse of Bear Stearns


Support Me
Contact
Books
Free Charts
ETF Finder
Legal Terms
Sources